MORGANTOWN – Regional power grid operator PJM Interconnection says it’s ready for the winter electricity demand – but also warns that growing demand highlights the lack of new power supplies.
PJM operates the grid for 13 states – including West Virginia – and Washington, D.C., serving 67 million people.
Last Jan. 22 saw an all-time winter high demand of 143,700 megawatts, PJM said. It forecasts a peak this winter of 145,700 MW, which would set a new record. With that in mind, it expects to have 180,800 MW of operational capacity on hand.
PJM said its prediction is based on it and its resources “continuing to take operational steps to improve generator performance during extreme winter conditions.” Since last winter, it has added about 4,800 MW of new generation – though most of it is solar. The addition translates to approximately 1,000 MW more operational capacity for this winter.
Aftab Khan, PJM’s executive vice president for Operations, Planning and Security, said, “The grid is set up to keep the power flowing reliably this winter under forecast conditions, but the tightening of our margins will begin to impact us in the next few years if it continues. PJM is working on multiple levels with all of our stakeholders to reverse this trend of demand growing faster than we can add generation.”
PJM noted that the National Weather Service predicts a slightly warmer winter for the Atlantic seaboard, with typical temperatures – but above-average precipitation – in PJM’s midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio.
PJM said it also expects to remain reliable through several more extreme, but less likely, cold weather scenarios in which lower amounts of power generation are available and there is more demand within PJM or in external systems in need of PJM’s assistance for reliability.
Various scenario analyses, PJM said, show that system reliability is maintained under most cases, including expected outages. But significantly higher levels of generator outages, such as those that occurred during Winter Storm Elliott, could leave the system vulnerable to power outages.
PJM said it will perform unannounced operational tests of generators that have not run for several weeks leading into the winter. These tests are performed in advance of extreme weather or high system demand to help ensure that these resources are fully functional and ready to operate when needed.
During the fall, PJM meets with regulators and neighboring system operators to review winter preparations, it said. It also conducts weekly operational review meetings during the winter with major natural gas pipelines to coordinate operations serving the natural gas fleet.
“Generator performance will be critical to maintaining reliability this winter,” said Michael Bryson, Sr. vice president – Operations. “We are encouraged by the work we have seen by generation owners to fortify their units for winter operations, and we will continue to focus on communication and coordination that help us understand how PJM can help to mitigate gas scheduling challenges or other generator limitations.”
