MORGANTOWN — It wouldn’t be all that surprising if, at some point in the future, we all somehow found out that WVU women’s basketball coach Mark Kellogg is some type of artificial intelligence rather than a flesh-and-blood human being.
If it were true (it’s not), it would go a long way in explaining why the computers that spit out the figures concerning women’s college basketball really seem to like him and his WVU team.
“The computers like us and we have some production there,” said Kellogg, who will lead the 19th-ranked Mountaineers (21-6, 11-4 Big 12) into a showdown with high-scoring Oklahoma State inside Hope Coliseum on Saturday.
The computers we speak of spit out hundreds of facts on every one of the 363 Division I teams on numerous variables. Some are meant to tell you how good a team is on offense, others on defense. Some constantly are crunching wins and losses from across the country to determine a team’s strength of schedule.
The NCAA’s NET rankings were created a few years ago, in theory, as a way to take in all of that data and summarize into one overall ranking. Yes, that is essentially what human voters do on a weekly basis in the AP and coaches’ top 25 polls.
The differences are the humans stop at 25 teams. The NET ranks all 363 teams. Humans have the advantage of the eye test, being able to actually see how a team looks and plays. The computers take emotion and bias out of the equation.
The computers have been on Kellogg’s side pretty much since the day he set foot on WVU’s campus. This particular season, the computers really don’t have much problem with the Mountaineers.
The reason? “I think the computers like us more now than they have in the past from some of the metrics and strength-of-schedules and now we have the wins above the bubble,” Kellogg said. “Some of those weren’t great (in the past). Our nonconference strength of schedule wasn’t as good as it is this year. I think we have a few more things going in our favor.”
The NET has WVU ranked at No. 22. The AP poll and coaches polls both have the Mountaineers at No. 19.
Which leads us to the major question: Are the Mountaineers in a good position to break through that ultimate wall that has been the second round of the NCAA tournament and get to the Sweet 16?
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams – it’s now at 68 – no WVU women’s hoops team has accomplished that feat.
This just may be the season, and that statement is because of a big belief in the numbers those computers are spitting out.
According to the numbers, there are only 15 other women’s teams out there who have played a more difficult schedule than WVU has this season.
No. 9 Duke was on the Mountaineers’ schedule. WVU beat the Blue Devils with just five players available in the second half. No. 10 Ohio State was WVU’s opponent in The Bahamas. WVU had that game won, but somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in an 83-81 loss.
There were two memorable games against No. 12 TCU. The Horned Frogs won both; one on a buzzer-beater, another took an out-of-this-world performance in the second half.
We can throw other teams in there, such as a disrespected Villanova, which looked every bit like a top 25 team when they visited Morgantown and won by 22. WVU ran past No. 15 Baylor and went toe-to-toe with No. 20 Texas Tech.
Put simply, WVU has had teams in the past with enough talent to advance to the Sweet 16. Former coach Mike Carey had three or four himself that seemed destined to play past the second round. The team Kellogg had last season was certainly talented enough.
None of them had been prepared enough by playing a very competitive schedule, at least not compared to the current version.
“I feel like we’re very fortunate to have been able to play those teams,” WVU guard Riley Makalusky said. “I think it shows how good we are. We were in close games with (Duke and Ohio State). I feel like it shows our potential.”
March will eventually arrive. Before long, the humans on the NCAA selection committee will take those computer numbers and bracket out a path for someone to win a national championship.
WVU getting to the Sweet 16? Just maybe that happens, but Kellogg agreed his team will be well prepared for the opportunity.
“More comfortable than we’ve been in the past, but that was the idea behind our nonconference schedule,” he said. “It puts us in a position that when we get (to the postseason), we have some quality wins, quality opponents and a strength of schedule that is up there. I think that sits in a pretty good spot right now.”
