Column: WVU football has a “must-win” game against Kansas
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MORGANTOWN -- West Virginia football is 5-4 on the season and 2-4 in the Big 12. The Mountaineers aren't making the conference title game and aren't sniffing the College Football Playoff. Going off that, to say WVU still has a "must-win" game on the schedule is silly.
But this weekend against Kansas, at home on 5:30 p.m., is a must-win. If you ask fans, media members or the coaching staff, they'd say the same. It's not in the capacity of CFP or Big 12 implications, but for other reasons.
The Jayhawks are 3-6 on the season and have one Big 12 win, over Baylor. Kansas is tied for last in the conference with Colorado and Kansas State at 1-5. The Jayhawks have one Power Four win this year, being the win over the Bears.
Looking at the stats, it should be a favorable matchup for the Mountaineers. Kansas has a decent pass defense, but is really bad at stopping the run, which WVU excels at. Offensively, the Jayhawks aren't great either, at 12th in the Big 12. I know what you're about to say: "WVU's defense can't stop Morgantown High School's offense," but it should look better just based on Kansas having a weaker offense than most team's its faced recently.
This is also the Mountaineers’ first home game since Oct. 17, so they'll have the home crowd advantage and should have a decent turnout, despite the projected sloppy weather forecasted.
Based on the matchup, WVU should win this game. The Mountaineers opened as a 2.5-point favorite at home and have a 53% chance to win based on ESPN Analytics.
This is a must-win game for bowl implications. Rich Rodriguez talked before Texas Tech that he'd like to get to a bowl game, even though they've been breezed over in recent years. Rodriguez said bowl games are good for the fans and the players to experience postseason football. WVU went 4-8 in Year 1, so being at least .500 is a step in the right direction.
Beating Kansas would get you to six wins. The road ahead is far from favorable. After Kansas, WVU hosts No. 14 Houston, and then takes a trip west to No. 2 Utah, who is one of two undefeated teams left in college football. It'll be really hard to win either of those to get to six wins.
It's a must-win game for the defensive staff. WVU's defense has looked really bad pretty much in the entirety of Big 12 play. The defense has allowed 34.56 points per game and 501.0 yards per game. Both of those stats are at the bottom of the conference. Rodriguez called the defense "gross."
When the Mountaineers win games, like over Cincinnati and TCU, fans and Rodriguez tend to be a bit lighter on the defense even if it looks bad. They say the defense is "improving" rather than it being horrible, and everyone should be fired.
If WVU loses to Kansas, who has won one Power Four game and has a bottom-tier offense, and the defense loses the game again, that could be what pushes Rodriguez to make changes to his staff. We've already seen teams fire head coaches after losing to Kansas (Dave Aranda).
The loss might not have an immediate impact -- cleaning house a day or two after the game -- but it could be the nail in the coffin for Rodriguez to look elsewhere in the offseason.
The Kansas game might not have must-win implications like earning the last spot in the CFP or being in position to make the Big 12 Championship, but this game holds a lot of weight.
I think fans, media members, and most importantly, the coaching staff and players know the sense of urgency that this game holds. For that reason, I think WVU wins this game by a couple of scores, similarly to the Virginia game earlier in the season.
You have to beat Kansas.
Prediction: West Virginia 35, Kansas 24