Column: Does WVU football have No. 15 Texas Tech on upset watch?
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MORGANTOWN -- West Virginia football's bye week has come and gone. The team is rested and prepared for the final four games of the season. Update on where the team stands with four games left: WVU is 5-3 on the year, a win away from the first bowl game since 2024, 2-3 in the Big 12 and is on a two-game winning streak. Rodriguez rode a high into the bye after a win over TCU on the road.
But here comes the gauntlet. The 13th-toughest remaining schedule in the country for the final four games, and it'd be even tougher if Kansas at 3-5 wasn't dragging it down. WVU faces undefeated No. 3 Utah, No. 17 Houston and this weekend, No. 15 Texas Tech.
Achieving a bowl game is the goal for the final four games, and a cherry on top would be winning two of the next four games. You have to beat a tumbling Kansas team, and then upset one of the ranked teams.
I think the best chance is this weekend when the Mountaineers head to Texas Tech on Saturday night for a 9:30 p.m. EST game. That might sound crazy. The Red Raiders won the Big 12 in 2025 and were the only representation for the conference in last year's College Football Playoff. This team is pretty different and has looked questionable at times this season.
Texas Tech is 7-1 on the year and is exiting with a top-25 win over Arizona 34-26. However, just two weeks ago, the Red Raiders were beaten by 13 points by Cincinnati, who WVU beat.
The problem with Texas Tech this season has been the quarterback play. The Red Raiders were the major storyline of the offseason, buying quarterback Brendan Sorsby from Cincinnati. He had problems with the NCAA regarding gambling and eventually he decided he wasn't going to play. So, insert Will Hammond into the starting role, coming off a brutal injury.
Hammond has thrown for six touchdowns and six interceptions. Head coach Joey McGuire wasn't confident in Hammond, so he brought in former Florida State quarterback Thomas Castellanos, who made his second start against Arizona this past weekend. Texas Tech looked a lot better with him at the helm, throwing for two touchdowns and carrying the ball 19 times for 117 yards.
Castellanos throws a kink in my upset pick after watching Texas Tech beat the Wildcats.
The Red Raiders do have their issues that I think WVU can expose this weekend. Texas Tech's defense is not nearly as good as it was last season because it lost a lot of key pieces, including do-it-all linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and pass rusher David Bailey. The defense is still seventh in the conference, but not as elite as some of the defenses WVU's faced.
Texas Tech's rushing defense is the best in the Big 12, which should create problems for the Mountaineers' run-heavy offense. But in the loss to Cincinnati, Texas Tech allowed 255 yards rushing, so it is not a steel curtain, like it is on paper. The Red Raiders' pass defense is really bad. Texas Tech is second-to-last in the Big 12 in stopping the pass, so quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. should have another big day in his home state.
The question, as it’s been for the past five weeks, is can WVU's defense stop Texas Tech's offense? The quarterback change and Texas Tech getting healthier will really test defensive coordinator Zac Alley's defense. But the Mountaineers are coming out of a bye where they should've gotten healthier and fixed some of the major problems defensively.
If WVU wants to win two of its next four games, I think this is really the best chance. Houston at home could be another opportunity, but it’s been more consistent than Texas Tech, and Utah on the road, who is one of three undefeated teams in the nation, is going to be a wash.
In a high-scoring game since both defenses aren't very good, the Mountaineers shock the Red Raiders and become bowl-eligible.
Prediction: West Virginia 38, Texas Tech 35