PJM Interconnection prepared for winter demand – even as demand grows
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MORGANTOWN - Regional electric grid operator PJM Interconnection said Thursday it’s ready for winter.
It expects to have sufficient resources to meet demand under expected conditions, it said. But reserve margins continue to tighten as demand outpaces new power supplies.
Reliable winter operations will depend on continued preparation and strong generator performance, particularly during periods of extreme cold, PJM said.
This is especially important in areas where transmission constraints limit the ability to deliver electricity from other parts of the system - especially in particular zones in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia.
PJM said it expects to have 182,426 megawatts of operational capacity to serve a forecasted peak electricity demand of about 147,500 MW, plus a forecast average of about 3,200 MW of electricity exports to neighboring systems.
That peak, driven by demand growth in the region, would set a new winter record if reached, PJM said.
"Our goal is to coordinate operations with the generation and transmission owners and proactively manage the system to perform at high levels when consumers need energy the most," said Michael Bryson, PJM senior vice president - Operations.
PJM reached its all-time winter peak of 143,700 MW on Jan. 22, 2025. In early 2026, PJM said, it maintained reliability through the most prolonged period of extreme cold experienced since the 1990s, recording hourly winter peak loads above 130,000 MW for eight days straight from Jan. 26 to Feb. 2.
PJM has also analyzed less likely, higher-stress cold-weather scenarios featuring lower amounts of available power generation, due either to generator outages or poor renewable performance related to the weather.
PJM said its analyses include customer demand of up to 152,200 MW. Those studies show that PJM can maintain reliability by implementing both Pre-Emergency and Emergency Demand Response programs.
Last winter and throughout 2026, PJM has relied on Demand Response customers to help reduce load during times of peak electricity demand and will continue to utilize this valuable resource as necessary. Demand Response, which pays customers in advance to reduce their power use when requested, has been activated 15 times in 2025 and 2026, compared to just eight times in the previous eight years.
PJM said it also will seek emergency orders from the Department of Energy as appropriate. These orders allow designated generators to run beyond their permitted emission levels in times of system emergencies. PJM has also requested and received emergency authority from DOE to direct data centers and other Large Load customers to use their backup generators as a last resort to reduce demand and avoid power outages for residential customers.
PJM said it has never had to use this backup generation authority.
PJM noted that the National Weather Service predicts a slightly warmer winter for much of the country, including all of the PJM footprint.
But PJM remains concerned that increasing demand, ongoing generator retirements and the slow pace of new generator projects coming online are eroding its reserve margins, while the number of flexible generation resources that can respond quickly to PJM's directions is decreasing.
PJM said significantly higher levels of generator outages, such as those that occurred during Winter Storm Elliott - in December 2022 - could leave the system vulnerable to power outages.
And new load growth, especially data centers and other Large Load customers, is driving steady overall increases in annual demand. Forecasted winter peak demand has risen by about 7,500 MW, 5%, since 2022.
PJM said it continues to collect minimum operating temperatures for its generation fleet to better understand the limitations of certain generators in extreme cold. PJM will also perform tests of generators that have not run for several weeks leading into the winter. These tests are performed ahead of extreme weather or high system demand to determine that these resources are fully functional and ready to operate when needed.
During the fall, PJM meets with regulators and neighboring system operators to review winter preparations. It also conducts weekly operational review meetings during the winter with major natural gas pipelines to coordinate operations serving the natural gas fleet.