Column: Could more than a bowl game for WVU football be on the horizon?
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MORGANTOWN -- It's hard to believe there are just four games left for West Virginia football in the regular season. It feels like just yesterday I was predicting who the starting quarterback was going to be, and now, it seems crazy that the answer was anything other than Michael Hawkins Jr. That doesn't take anything away from Scotty Fox Jr. Hawkins has just been that good.
With four games left, the final record of this team is coming into picture. The Mountaineers are 5-3 on the season and 2-3 in Big 12 play. After four games, WVU can be as great as 9-3, 7-5, or as bad as 5-7.
With five wins, Rich Rodriguez has already improved from Year 1 to Year 2, even after a 0-3 start in conference play made it look questionable. And WVU is one win away from a bowl game.
Coming out of the bye and the end in sight, it raises the question of what the final record of Year 2 looks like. Can Rodriguez get the Mountaineers to their first bowl game since positioning the team to one in 2007? Can he do better than his predecessor, Neal Brown?
The road ahead is daunting. The Mountaineers face three ranked teams in the next four games. It'll be hard to muster up wins, but there are opportunities for some. Here is my prediction.
Nov. 7 at No. 13 Texas Tech: W
I believe West Virginia will win one of its next four games. The biggest question is whether the Mountaineers win more than that. That means they have to get an upset win somewhere over one of the three top 25 teams. I think on the road against Texas Tech is the best chance.
It might sound crazy, but the Red Raiders haven't looked great all season.
They are coming off their first loss of the season to Cincinnati, 37-24. WVU just showed it can beat the Bearcats, so if that's the case, it should have a chance against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders could easily lose another game this weekend to No. 22 Arizona, who has only excelled since losing to BYU.
Texas Tech has had quarterback problems after the whole Brendan Sorsby debacle this offseason. Quarterback Will Hammond has taken over and has had his ups and downs. He has six passing touchdowns to six interceptions on the year. Texas Tech brought in Thomas Castellanos off the couch, given how unconfident it is with Hammond. The Red Raiders’ scoring offense is sixth, a spot behind WVU.
The Red Raiders' strength is the defense, but they were just gashed by the Bearcats’ rushing attack for 255 yards. WVU has the best rushing attack in the conference, so if it can get rolling and the defense can turn over Hammond, Texas Tech could be on upset watch.
The game being on the road makes it especially tough, but Rodriguez showed last year after beating top 25 Houston on the road, it's very possible.
Nov. 14 vs. Kansas: W
The only game WVU is probably favored the rest of the season is home against Kansas. The Jayhawks won their first Power Four game of the season against Baylor last week, and the Bears immediately fired head coach Dave Aranda afterwards. Kansas is 3-4 and has just one Big 12 win, coming against Baylor. That game was close, too, with the Jayhawks winning 25-24. Head coach Lance Leipold is on the hot seat.
Statistically, Kansas has the 11th-ranked offense and defense in the Big 12. The Jayhawks aren't really good at anything. The rushing defense is the worst in the conference, creating a favorable matchup for WVU.
This will be the Mountaineers’ first home game in three weeks, and if they beat Texas Tech, it should be a hot ticket in town. Even if WVU doesn't beat the Red Raiders, this is still a chance to get bowl eligible for the first time under Rodriguez.
Kansas is bad, so WVU wins this one comfortably, even if the defense isn't fixed.
Nov. 21 vs. No. 18 Houston: L
Rodriguez won one top 25 matchup last season, and it completely shocked the Big 12. The winless-in-conference-play Mountaineers went into Houston and pulled off the upset. It was one of two WVU conference wins.
You might say, 'Well, the Mountaineers beat them last year, why shouldn't they beat them again?' This is a much more experienced Cougars squad. Weigman is in Year 2 at Houston and has balled out. He is second in the Big 12 in passing yards and has thrown 20 passing touchdowns. The defense isn't anything to breeze over either. The Cougars have the third-best run defense.
After last year's embarrassment, Houston has extra juice and wants to do the same to the Mountaineers at Milan Puskar Stadium, which is the last home game. I think WVU puts up a fight and is a candidate for that second win, but I think the Cougars get revenge.
Nov. 27 at No. 6 Utah: L
As of now, Utah is the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the country as one of the three remaining undefeated teams in college football. The Utes lost their long-time head coach Kyle Whittingham -- might've been a positive -- and haven't missed a beat.
The Utes have the second-best offense and the second-best defense in the Big 12. Utah is a complete team and has downed teams by an average of 18 points a game, which is tied for 11th in the FBS. The Utes proved they weren't fraudulent and beat top 25 Houston last weekend.
Utah has a tough road ahead. The Utes have No. 8 BYU, No. 22 Arizona and Cincinnati, who is unofficially 28, on the docket. For the final season at home, especially if Utah loses one of those games, it'll really need to finish the season off strong at home to sway the College Football Playoff Committee. Just a difficult spot for WVU to close the regular season.