2026 Season Prediction | WVU football could have a bowl game on the horizon
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MORGANTOWN -- In just two weeks, West Virginia football kicks off against Coastal Carolina at noon for the first game of the 2026 season. The second year of Rich Rodriguez starts very soon.
Year 1 left a lot to be desired. The Mountaineers finished 4-8, with a lot of surprising wins and losses. You could've penciled in a win against Ohio in Week 2, which you would've been wrong about, and a loss on the road against ranked Houston. You would've been wrong there, too.
It was hard to predict the team last year, but what wasn't hard to predict was that the team wasn't going to be very good. There was a whole new staff, and the team was made up of around 70 transfers.
In 2026, it should be different. The team is better, or that's at least what Rodriguez has said multiple times through the spring and leading up to the first game. The team is deeper, faster and bigger at almost every position. On paper, it's hard to disagree. The team looks more talented. But that doesn't mean it'll transfer onto the field.
After a four-win season, you'd have to think this team can get a couple more wins, just for Rodriguez's sake. If not, the seat will get very hot in Morgantown.
Coastal Carolina: W
WVU and Rich Rodriguez couldn't have played Coastal Carolina at a better time. The Chanticleers have a new coach, Ryan Beard, who came over from Missouri State. Beard was successful at the FCS level, but it might be hard to take an immediate step up and beat the Mountaineers in Week 1.
Beard is young, has a young staff, and has to deal with a lot of new players. WVU starts of the season with a win, beating a non-Power Four team with a new head coach.
U.T. Martin: W
You might think I'm crazy, but U.T. Martin isn't a team to sleep on and is one of the better FCS schools. The Skyhawks have made FCS playoff appearances, and every year is competing for the OVC championship. U.T. Martin is favored to win its conference this season.
But it's still an FCS school, and WVU takes care of business handily. It’s a pay-to-win game (I call these types of FCS games that because WVU pays these teams to come in and be warm-ups before bigger competition). U.T. Martin is the Robert Morris of this year.
At Virginia (Charlotte): L
A lot of people are calling this game the pivotal game of the season. This game will see if WVU actually has something in this year's team, or the Mountaineers will be fighting to be .500. I completely agree.
Virginia lost a lot of talent this offseason, but brought in strong replacements. The Cavaliers were an ACC championship win away from being in the College Football Playoff last year, were ranked in the top 25, and received votes in the AP preseason poll.
Virginia is a bit further along than WVU. But this very well could be like the Pitt game, and should be competitive.
Oklahoma State: W
Oklahoma State is the flashy pick this year. The Eric Morris hire had a lot of promise, knowing what was going to come with him from North Texas. The Mean Green were a game away from the College Football Playoff, and most of that roster is at Oklahoma State.
I think there's a bit more ready talent on the Cowboys’ roster, but I think this is one of the swing home games WVU could win compared to the rest, against Arizona and Houston, especially since it’s early on the season, where teams are still figuring things out. If the Mountaineers were to lose this game, it'll be an uphill battle to make a bowl game.
At Iowa State: W
There's a good chance Iowa State is the worst team in the Big 12 this year. Head coach Matt Campbell is at Penn State, taking his staff and best players with him. Jimmy Rogers had a great season at Washington State, but that's a much smaller stage.
Rogers has his work cut out for him rebuilding the roster, and it's far too early to create any magic at Iowa State, which is one of the harder schools to start over from scratch. WVU picks up its first road win of the season.
Arizona: L
Arizona was ranked in the top 25 of the CFP to close out the season, and won six Big 12 games. The Wildcats were competitive and return the staff and starting quarterback. Big pieces in the secondary are gone, but were filled with experienced transfers.
Arizona should be competing for a Big 12 title bid, and quarterback Noah Fifita will be hard to stop for a WVU defense that struggled in 2025. WVU ends its winning streak, even at home.
Cincinatti: W
Cincinnati lost quarterback Brendan Sorsby this offseason, which was the biggest strength of a seven-win team. Quarterback J.C. French IV is a decent replacement, but he can't carry a team as Sorsby did.
A lot of talent needed to be replaced as well, and I think the team takes a step back from the seven wins. At home and with all the holes, WVU has a real shot to get back in the win column, keeping the bowl game pace.
At TCU: L
TCU is one of the more consistent teams in the Big 12 every year, and the only Big 12 team to make the National Championship game in the CFP era. Head coach Sonny Dykes lost a lot of pieces this offseason, including longtime quarterback Josh Hoover. Dykes reloaded, and the Horned Frogs should still be in the top half of the Big 12.
WVU put up a fight against TCU last year. That game was at home, though, and WVU still lost by a touchdown. On the road, it'll be a bigger challenge.
At Texas Tech: L
Texas Tech was by far the best team in the Big 12 last year and is a favorite to win the conference again this year. There's no Brendan Sorsby, and most of that talented defense was drafted, but the Red Raiders spent a lot in the portal and should still be the best team in the conference.
WVU-Texas Tech was the last game of the regular season, and the Mountaineers were stomped 49-0. The Mountaineers should be better, but better enough to close a 49-point gap on the road? I don't think so.
Kansas: W
Kansas has a lot of roster and staff turnover this year. Quarterback Jalon Daniels is finally gone, and some of the top playmakers went with him. Head coach Lance Leipold brought back offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and added Kansas State running back Dylan Edwards to keep the offense on track. Linebacker Trey Lathan should anchor the defense.
Even with Daniels, Kansas only won five games, one more than the less talented Mountaineers. This might be the biggest game in the second half of the season. Two teams are similarly matched, but having this game at home, it hands it to WVU, earning a bowl game.
Houston: L
WVU won its first Big 12 game on the road against top-25 Houston. It was the shock of the season aside from losing to Ohio in Week 2. When all hope was lost, the Mountaineers managed to win a shootout on the road.
This year will be different. Houston is only improving and is ranked in the top 25 of the AP preseason poll. After last season, the Cougars won't take WVU for granted. Like last year, the Mountaineers lose their last home game.
At Utah: L
Utah has a first-year head coach, Morgan Scalley, but he's not really a first-year head coach. Scalley's been on staff for a long time and retained major pieces from last year's top 20 team -- the third-best team in the Big 12. Utah is ranked in the top 25 heading into the season now.
While Kyle Whittingham took some major pieces with him to Michigan, Scalley retained quarterback Devon Dampier, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. The duo of Dampier and Wayshawn Parker at running back should be a tough force to stop for WVU on the road.
Record: 6-6
While it might not be what most fans want, 6-6 is a reasonable outlook on this season. There could be 50/50 games where it goes in WVU's favor; there's also the other 50, where the Mountaineers could lose a game or two. This roster, while more talented, is still very new. There are a ton of new players and starters who have to work together for the first time to put wins on the table.
A six-win season and a bowl game is a step in the right direction. This rebuild wasn't going to happen overnight, and if anything, this is really Year 1, since Rodriguez had a full offseason to put together a roster. Depending on if this team puts together more wins, next year could see this team winning 8-10 games. If it’s under six wins, the pressure is really turned up.