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A friend quipped the other day that President Trump truly deserves the Nobel Peace Prize because he has already ended the Iran war eight times. Will the ninth time be the charm after his latest decision to call off a military escalation in search of a deal with the revolutionary regime?
"We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to," Mr. Trump posted at 10:05 p.m. on Saturday. He added that this includes "Immediate, Complete, and Total" opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran's nuclear program.
Mr. Trump offered no other details. It also isn't clear how this miraculous turn of events happened so quickly after Mr. Trump had been building all week to a military response. Journal reporters said Friday Mr. Trump had made a decision to escalate.
Saudi Arabia's national news agency reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had asked Mr. Trump to stand down, perhaps fearful that its oil facilities and tankers would become a target of Iran in the Gulf and Iran's Houthi proxy in the Red Sea. If that's true, it's another sign that Iran now has escalation dominance in this conflict.
Iran hasn't said much as we write this, and leaks from negotiators suggest the familiar confusing intercessions from Oman and Qatar. It seems unlikely that Iran has agreed to much on its nuclear program after the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU) offered little in the way of concessions.
As for the Strait, Mr. Trump's latest threats of escalation followed Iran's attacks on shipping that tried to pass without its permission--as well as an unprovoked missile attack last week on a U.S. base in Jordan.
By now it's clear that this up and down, back and forth, from war of annihilation to peace in our time is Mr. Trump's chaotic way of war. He may think it keeps the enemy guessing, but it also keeps the American public unsure of what his war aims are or how he hopes to achieve them. No wonder the polls show voters have soured on the war. If Mr. Trump did restart the bombing, it isn't even clear what his strategic purpose would be, other than hoping that it would cause the regime to sign what he calls a "DEAL."
It's been clear since Mr. Trump agreed to a cease-fire in April that he wants out of the war. He's worried about the impact on the economy from higher oil prices, or, as he memorably put it, becoming the next Herbert Hoover. He also wants lower gas prices going into the midterm election, especially as his approval rating falls below Joe Biden's and Barack Obama's at a comparable period in their terms.
Iran's regime knows signals of weakness when it hears them. It interpreted the poorly drafted MOU as an opening to let it control the Strait and has kept taunting Mr. Trump with attacks on U.S. allies and bases. Mr. Trump lashes out with a tit-for-tat bombing response that so far hasn't caused Iran to bend.
Iran also knows Mr. Trump is surrounded by advisers who didn't want the President to attack Iran at all and now want the conflict over on nearly any available terms. His aides think the cost of further fighting is higher than the damage to U.S. (and Mr. Trump's) credibility from a cease-fire that cedes the initiative in the Gulf to Iran. The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham removed a rare hawkish counselor.
Has Iran now finally agreed to terms that can plausibly be called a U.S. victory, as Mr. Trump's Truth Social post suggested? Recall that when the MOU was signed, Mr. Trump's negotiators hailed the result, and claimed the regime had turned a "new leaf," as Vice President JD Vance put it, and wanted to become a "normal country," despite 47 years of promoting terror and regional revolution.
As ever, it pays to watch what Iran does, not what the regime and Mr. Trump say it will do.
— The Wall Street Journal