MORGANTOWN — When West Virginia baseball’s regional was announced as the No. 16, and the rest of the teams were revealed, it might’ve seemed daunting.
Especially when the No. 2 seed in the regional is Wake Forest, who is the highest No. 2 seed in the tournament. The Demon Deacons have had a lot of postseason success, have been to the NCAA tournament the last five years, were in the semifinals in 2023, and have won the ACC six times. It didn’t get any better when the No. 3 seed announced was Kentucky, who is from the SEC and was in the regional with WVU last year. The Wildcats have made the NCAA tournament the last four years and were in the College World Series in 2024. If it weren’t for WVU last year, Kentucky would’ve won its last three regionals.
Binghamton was the last team picked and received an automatic bid by winning the America East Conference.
By name value, the Morgantown Regional looks really tough for WVU, but it’s not as bad as you think when you look at the other team’s resumes.
Let’s start with how the other three teams did in their conference tournaments. Wake Forest? It lost in its first game of the ACC tournament to Pitt, who didn’t make the NCAA tournament. Kentucky? It was bounced in its first game to Vanderbilt, who is also not in the tournament. Binghamton did win its conference, but the America East is nowhere near the premier conferences in college baseball. There are just seven teams in that conference.
How about when looking at how the other teams fared this season?
Binghamton finished 31-20, but it didn’t have an impressive win, playing mostly smaller Division I schools.
Wake Forest didn’t do the best against tournament teams and was swept by Florida State, being mercied in one of the games, lost a series to Virginia, lost two of three against Coastal Carolina, lost a series to Miami and was swept by Georgia Tech. Its best series wins are against NC State and Louisville, and only NC State is in the tournament. The Demon Deacons did well against Liberty, and the Flames are in the tournament, but WVU won a series against them, too.
Kentucky finished 13th out of 16 teams in the SEC and was 32-21 on the year. The SEC conference was the best in baseball, but how’d the Wildcats do in it? Kentucky lost a series against Arkansas, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss. Three series losses were to teams not in the tournament. Kentucky also lost a series to last-place Missouri. The Wildcats best wins are sweeping Alabama and St. John’s, who are both in the tournament, and taking a series against Tennessee. Those are more respectable wins.
Binghamton has a Quad 1 record of 1-2, Kentucky’s is 7-8 and Wake Forest is a whopping 5-15. WVU has the only winning Quad 1 record in the regional. Only WVU was ranked in the latest Division I Baseball rankings.
It looks even better when you do some digging around the other regionals in the tournament. If WVU beat Kansas to win the Big 12 Championship, the Mountaineers might’ve been seeded 14 or 15 nationally. What does Kansas’ regional look like with the No. 15 seed? It has Arkansas, who beat Kentucky in a series, has a Quad 1 record of 18-13 and was seventh in the SEC. Seventh in the SEC is better than Mississippi State, who is hosting, Ole Miss and Tennessee. The average RPI in that region is one of the lowest, and Kansas has a higher RPI than WVU to put that in perspective. The Morgantown Regional has the fifth-lowest average RPI.
If you look at the names, Wake Forest and Kentucky, it might have looked bad. But those two teams didn’t have anywhere near the year they’ve had in the past, especially compared to WVU’s historic year, earning a regional host for the first time since 2019.
If you want to look ahead to what’s to come, that’s a different story. The winner of the Morgantown Regional will face the winner of the Los Angeles Regional, where No. 1 overall seed UCLA and No. 2 seed Virginia Tech reside. That’s when it might look scary. But last year’s No. 1 overall seed, Vanderbilt, did lose in its regional.
