COMMENTARY
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — It looks like the perfect storm to be the perfect disaster when West Virginia takes on No. 5 Oklahoma at noon today in Norman.
The Mountaineers have lost two in a row and are coming off a 24-point second-half drubbing at the hands of Iowa State last week at Milan Puskar Stadium. They’re banged up, young and looking for any positive sign through the halfway point of the season under new coach Neal Brown.
Across the field, the Sooners have yet again found the recipe to the No. 1 offense in the country, despite having a brand new quarterback. That didn’t matter last year when Kyler Murray replaced Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall NFL draft pick Baker Mayfield — Murray turned around and did the exact same thing.
While Jalen Hurts, a grad transfer from Alabama, likely won’t be the top pick in the draft in April, he should be in New York in December for the Heisman Trophy presentation and could very well be the third-straight O.U. quarterback to win it.
Head coach Lincoln Riley, in his third year at the helm for the Sooners, is an offensive genius, and it’s not over the top to say he could have an NFL job in the near future.
I mean, if Kliff Kingsbury can get one after his mediocre stint at Texas Tech, surely Riley can do the same.
Oklahoma leads the nation in total yards per game (622), are fifth in passing (335), fifth in rushing (286) and fourth in points (46.2).
Individually, Hurts is 12th in the nation with 630 rushing yards, while dynamic duo Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon have combined for 656 yards and five touchdowns. Receiver CeeDee Lamb, who Brown said is playing better than anyone in the country, is 11th in yards (610) but tied for first in touchdowns with 10. Hurts is 10th in passing yards (1,758).
Oh, Oklahoma’s defense is also vastly improved from a year ago under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. The Sooners are 41st in yards allowed per game (341.8) and 30th in points allowed (20.3).
In short, the Sooners offense is scary, and with Oklahoma’s expectations of reaching the College Football Playoff again, and with WVU’s expectation of trying to get healthy and scratch out six wins for a bowl berth, that results are a 33 1/2-point spread.
In the last 25 years, if the Mountaineers pulled off the upset, it would be tied for the 8th biggest upset against the spread — James Madison beat Virginia Tech on the road in September 2010 as 33 1/2-point underdogs. The biggest upset during that span was a 43-40 win for Howard over UNLV in 2017 when Howard came in as 45 1/2-point underdogs.
This is the second-largest spread against West Virginia in program history. The worst was in 2001 at Miami, the same season the Mountaineers won just three games and the Hurricanes won the national title with a perfect 12-0 mark, featuring the likes of Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Jeremy Shockey, Bryant McKinnie, Sean Taylor, Jonathan Vilma, Vince Wilfork, D.J. Williams and Antrel Rolle — all of whom went on to have great careers in the NFL.
This Oklahoma team doesn’t have that type of star power, but this West Virginia team is similar to the 2001 group in that it’s breaking in an all new group under a new coach.
But don’t tell the Mountaineers they don’t have a chance — that’s something they’ve heard before.
“I’m used to it,” defensive lineman Darius Stills said. “No one gives West Virginia credit for anything. That means we have nothing to lose. We’re going into this with a positive mindset, not, ‘Oh, we’re going to lose.’ The pressure is really on Oklahoma, it’s not on us. If we play how I’ve seen the defense play, then we’ll be good.”
Stills is obviously in the right believing his unit can slow down the vaunted O.U. offense — like defensive coordinator Vic Koenning said after the Iowa State game, WVU has proven in spurts that it can perform really well defensively, but there are times when it completely falls apart.
That’s the last thing the Mountaineers can afford to do today. It will have to play a nearly perfect game defensively, but with freshmen littered in the secondary’s 2-deep, starting cornerback Keith Washing questionable with a muscle injury and Hakeem Bailey out for the first half after being ejected for targeting in the second half last week, it will be a steep hill to climb.
There are factors that give West Virginia a glimpse of hope, though. A motivated Austin Kendall is expected to get the start at quarterback after suffering a chest injury a week ago. He’ll have a shot to play against the school that passed him up twice for the starting job, and to face the coach who initially blocked his transfer to WVU.
Oklahoma is coming off an emotional win last week over Texas in the Red River Rivalry, so a let down is possible.
But as you look up and down the matchups, a 33 1/2-point spread seems fair. Take this game for what it is — a lateral move on the climb for the Mountaineers under Brown.
